Trinity Medical Center I Dr. Marin Guentchev, MD, PhD

The effect of Covid-19 and respiratory infections on mortality W47

The effect of Covid-19 and respiratory infections on mortality in Bulgaria in the last 5 years to week 47 2020.

I follow the latest data on total mortality in Bulgaria

These are the data on mortality in Bulgaria from 2015 until today. Data for the last two weeks W46 and W47 were extrapolated based on data on daily mortality from Covid-19. I accept that all patients who died of Covid-19 were 'excess mortality.' Mortality is also the most accurate parameter for the severity of the respiratory infection situation in winter. The other parameter is the number of patients ventilated, but I do not have access to this information.

There is some bad news - according to my forecasts, we have already passed the peak levels in 2017. This week we are probably about 8% above the highest value for 2017. We will know it in 2 weeks by publishing the official data for the 47th week. The good news is that the exponential growth in mortality in the W42-W45 weeks appears to be slowing. I hope that in 2 weeks this trend will be even more visible and we will even go into regression of mortality.

The data from Sweden give me hope. It seems that there the second peak (minimum compared to the first) of more than a week disappears (yesterday there were 5 Covid related deaths).
Trinity Medical Center
117 Zaichar St /Ground floor/
/Konstantin Velichkov Metro Station/
BG-1309 Sofia, Bulgaria
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